Instant Valuation

Following on from my last post on the Census 2021 results I though we would have a look at the population and household growth across England and Wales and specifically Crawley, which has been unequal over the past decade. This has been reflected in property price performance too.

The population of England and Wales grew by 3.5 million between the 2011 census and the 21st March 2021 census, the number of households by 1.4 million.

The East of England and the South West have witnessed the strongest growth in both population and the number of households, but it is the East Midlands and London where price growth has been most significant.

In Crawley itself, the population size has increased by 11.2%, from around 106,600 in 2011 to 118,500 in 2021. This is higher than the overall increase for England (6.6%), where the population grew by nearly 3.5 million to 56,489,800

At 11.2%, Crawley's population increase is higher than the increase for the South East (7.5%). In 2021, Crawley ranked 199th for total population out of 309 local authority areas in England, moving up 17 places in a decade.

The government’s Levelling Up White Paper, releases in February, presented and ambitious 10-year agenda to morally, socially and economically narrow regional inequality. The 2031 census will no doubt provide an indication as to its level of success.

My name is Ben Cannon. You can call me on 01293 307 323 or email me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Thanks for reading

Ben

Source: Dataloft, Census 2021 (March 21st), Land Registry, DLUHC, ONS, based on £psf, Weighted average.

Personally, I love reading the results of the Census and did you know that since 1801 a census has taken place in England and Wales every 10 years, except for 1941. The 2021 Census is officially the 24th and a ‘digital first’ Census, the majority of responses were completed online.

The first results of the 2021 Census were published on June 28th and show that the population of England and Wales was 6% higher on Census Day 2021 compared to Census Day 2011. The number of households was also 6% higher.

Over the 10-year period property prices rose by an average of 39% with urban areas outperforming their rural counterparts.

An interesting point is that the majority (75%) of people live in urban areas but the rate of population and household growth in rural areas appears to be much higher and this is likely to be due to the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown with many students and young people returned home and households combined, temporarily boosting the rural population.

My name is Ben Cannon. You can call me on 01293 307 323 or email me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Thanks for reading

Ben

Source: Dataloft, Census 2011, Census 2021, ONS, Land Registry, DLUHC, based of £psf, weighted average.

  • With inflation running high, the Bank of England increased its base rate to 1.25% in June, with another 0.5 percentage point rise forecast before the end of 2022 and potential for a further 0.25 percentage point rise in 2023.
  • The typical margin between mortgage rates and the bank rate (1.5 percentage points over the last year) suggests the average new lending mortgage rates will be over 3% by the end of 2022.
  • The vast majority of new mortgage borrowers are on fixed rates (representing 92% of new loans over the last 5 years) offering protection from rising payments, at least until the fixed term expires.
  • House prices are largely driven by what people can borrow and at what cost, so with rising rates this does start to drive affordability the wrong way.
  • Source: Dataloft, Bank of England HM Treasury Consensus Forecasts June 2022

The government has outlined significant changes to the Private Rented Market in the fairer Private Rented Sector white paper. The measures will form part of the Renters Reform Bill announced in the queen’s speech.

The headliner is the end of the Section 21 so called ‘no-fault’ evictions, although I don’t like the name ‘no fault’ eviction as the section 21 (6a) is a legal notice a landlord needs to serve to regain possession of their property.  An eviction can only be done with a court order – just another use of catastrophising language to grab headlines.

No more fixed terms all tenancies to be moved to a Single system of periodic tenancies which will only require 2 months’ notice from tenants at any point and a landlord will only be able to end the tenancy if the landlord has a valid reason, which will be defined by law i.e. a need to sell, move in, rent arrears or anti-social behaviour.

It will be illegal for landlords or agents to have a blanket ban on allowing pets or renting to families with children, or those on benefits.

The decent homes standard will be extended to the private sector for the first time, with councils set to have stronger powers to tackle rogue landlords.

A new property portal one-stop-shop (landlord register?) will be introduced to help landlords comply with and understand their responsibilities, while a new Property Ombudsman will be created to handle disputes between renters and landlord.

This is only a white paper and will most likely change prior to being passed into law, landlords and agents who operate within the law, should not fear the renting changes proposed by the Government

Source: Dataloft, DLUHC. Link: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/a-fairer-private-rented-sector

Many of our customers know that we like to take an analytical approach to the property market and we also know that everyone loves a good market prediction! So here is a short one for the next 3 months based on the latest RICS sentiment survey of chartered surveyors. Property and rental prices are expected to continue to climb over the next three months. Interestingly to see surveyors are more optimistic about the short-term outlook for rents, with +58 expecting rental values to increase over the next few months, compared to +21 for house prices.

Both the sales and lettings market are blighted by stock shortages and the rental market specifically is suffering from falling landlord instructions at a time when demand from renters is increasing, this could possibly be due to lack of stock in the sales market. I still believe that now is a great time to buy an investment property due to the ever-increasing demand and lack of new properties coming on to the rental market. If you need any advice on buy to let, please call the office and ask for Ben.

The 12-month outlook is starting to ease slightly for house prices but remains positive. The rate of growth in rents is expected to overtake that of house prices over the next 5 years due to the continued shortage of rental properties.

Source: Dataloft, RICS (net balance score is calculated by the proportion of survey respondents reporting a rise minus those report a fall in the given indicator)

 

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